Global Advertising: The world view of advertising

campaignlive.co.uk, Friday, 28 May 2004 12:00AM

Across the globe, the first green shoots of economic recovery are visible. Euro 2004 and the Olympics in Greece should encourage spending, while China's rapid growth is driving the region forward. However, further terrorist attacks present a serious threat to the recovery.

NORTH AMERICA

After slipping slightly by 0.3 per cent last year, the US, the world's advertising largest market (with 46 per cent of global spend), is back with a vengeance. ZenithOptimedia predicts 4.4 per cent growth this year based on renewed consumer confidence (at its highest for two years), an acceleration of GDP growth (up from 3.1 per cent in 2003 to 3.9 per cent expected this year) and employment gradually picking up. Elections and the Olympics will boost adspend in both the US and Canada, where growth of 3.4 per cent is expected. Growth in Canada has been dampened by a fall in spend of its largest advertiser, the Canadian government, which has pledged to cut back on advertising over the next three years after a $100 million sponsorship scandal.

Biggest advertisers: General Motors in the US ($2.5 billion), BCE in Canada ($82.6 million).

Watch out for: The US presidential elections, the outcome of the upfront TV buying season.

Key threats to growth: Personal video recorders, declining network TV audiences in the US, terrorist attacks.

Adspend ($000s)

US 154,609,783

Canada 5,569,741

LATIN AMERICA

The rollercoaster that is Latin America's economy is experiencing a period of relative calm, buoying the region's advertising market. But it is still largely an unpredictable place for advertisers. Brazil, Latin America's biggest economy, is expected to grow by 3 per cent, while its ad market is primed for 7 per cent growth. Argentina, in economic freefall just a few years ago, is the region's rising star, up 19.3 per cent. Mexico is sluggish.

Biggest advertisers: Telefonica in Brazil ($91.7 million), Unilever in Argentina ($9.7 million), Nacional de Chocolates in Colombia ($4.2 million), Unilever in Chile ($6.4 million), Televisa in Mexico ($106.8 million).

Watch out for: The rise of media specialists challenging powerful media owners and the traditional full-service model.

Key threats to growth: Political and economic unrest scaring off US and European advertisers.

Adspend ($000s)

Brazil 3,827,804

Argentina 2,637,942

Colombia 692,739

Chile 511,569

Mexico 273,803

Uruguay 66,831

Peru 58,727

EUROPE

There's a huge gulf between the growth rates of the emerging markets of the east and the waking dinosaurs of the west, but the overall outlook is encouraging. Southern Europe should benefit from Euro 2004, as long as there is no repeat of the Madrid terrorist attacks. The UK is looking good, driven by healthy digital uptake, but Germany, the region's biggest market, is stuck and is holding the continent back.

Biggest advertisers: Procter & Gamble in Germany ($288.1 million), P&G in the UK ($288 million), Vivendi Universal in France ($514 million), Fiat in Italy ($88.1 million), Telefonica in Spain ($118.2 million).

Watch out for: The rise of the European Union's new members. The region is set to grow 10.7 per cent this year, according to Initiative.

Key threats to growth: Terrorist attacks, EU advertising legislation (food products to children, even car advertising), continued gloom in Germany.

Adspend ($000s)

Germany 19,160,338

UK 14,261,757

France 11,347,242

Italy 8,272,491

Spain 6,729,395

ASIA & PACIFIC

Understandably, there's a lot of excitement about Asia. China's ad market has doubled in five years and India and Indonesia are gathering pace too. And crucially Japan, the world's second-largest market, is picking itself up off the floor after a decade of chronic decline. This is its first sustained recovery since the 90s, led by falling unemployment and consumers who are beginning to splash out a bit more.

Biggest advertisers: Toyota in Japan ($981.3 million), Procter & Gamble in China ($202.2 million), Coles Myer in Australia ($115.8 million), Unilever in India ($376.2 million), Unilever in Indonesia ($62.5 million).

Watch out for: China's growth boosted further by the Beijing Olympics and Japan as it wakes.

Key threats to growth: Media inflation in China, Sars.

Adspend ($000s)

Japan 36,888,645

China 22,715,401

Australia 5,051,130

India 2,694,668

Indonesia 2,613,553

Taiwan 2,303,684

Thailand 1,930,218

New Zealand 1,025,738

Singapore 630,118

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Despite tumultous times in Iraq and Israel, the Middle East continues to enjoy a steady period of growth. A real-estate boom, plus growth in tourism, hotels and airlines, is bringing with it healthy adspend across the region. A symbol of renewed confidence was LG Electronics' sponsorship of Iraq's national football team. South Africa is the market to watch out for in Africa, set for growth of 22.5 per cent, according to Initiative.

Biggest advertisers: Toyota in Saudi Arabia ($8.6 million), e TV in South Africa ($55.6 million), France Telecom in Israel ($39 million), Procter & Gamble in Lebanon ($33.8 million).

Watch out for: Saudi Arabia. A young, vibrant market, very attractive to advertisers - 50 per cent of its population is under 25.

Key threats to growth: Lack of reliable research, spread of violence to countries outside the familiar trouble spots.

Adspend ($000s)

Arabia (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates,

Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar) 3,360,000

South Africa 1,650,770

Israel 1,057,500

Lebanon 90,800

This article was first published on campaignlive.co.uk

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