Digital adspend forecast to become 51% of UK market in 2016

More than half of all UK adspend will be digital next year, Carat has predicted, with the total market to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2015.

Digital growth: driven by a high demand for mobile and video
Digital growth: driven by a high demand for mobile and video

In its latest Advertising Expenditure report, published today, the Dentu Aegis Network company has forecast the UK advertising market to grow by 5.5 per cent in 2016, which is lower than the 5.8 per cent prediction it made in its last report in March.

Carat also predicts digital adspend will account for 51 per cent of all UK adspend next year, the first time that digital advertising will make up the majority of the market.

Based on data received from 59 worldwide markets, the September report forecasts that global adspend will grow by 4.0 per cent this year to $529 billion (£340.68 billion) – a slight decline from the 4.6 per cent predicted in March.

Carat predicts global adspend will grow by 4.7 per cent next year, also slightly down from a previous prediction of 5.0 per cent. 

The report said the forecast was downgraded because of volatility in the Russia and China markets. Russia adspend is predicted to shrink by 14 per cent this year, while China is expected to grow by 6 per cent (down from a previous prediction of 7.9 per cent).

Digital is the only media channel that is predicted to grow by double digits this year (15.7 per cent) and in 2016 (14.3 per cent).

The report said the growth in digital is driven by a high demand for mobile and video ads, especially across social media, with 51.2 per cent year-on-year growth expected this year. The report predicts programmatic buying to grow at 20 per cent year-on-year.

Jerry Buhlmann, the chief executive of Dentsu Aegis Network, said:  "Digital media continues to achieve outstanding growth as the effectiveness of this medium and results achieved, especially with millennials, warrants the upsurge in spend levels."

TV will have a 42 per cent market share in 2015 and is forecast to grow by 2.6 per cent this year globally, down from a previous prediction of 3.6 per cent. Radio is forecast to grow by 1.3 per cent, cinema by 4.7 per cent and outdoor by 3.4 per cent. 

The only media forecast to decline this year and next are newspapers (down 4.4 per cent this year and down 2.6 per cent next year) and magazines (down 2.0 per cent in 2015 and down 1.9 per cent in 2016).

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