AA predicts rise in adspend

Long-term prospects for the UK ad industry have been boosted with new research suggesting that media spend will grow by at least 19 per cent over the next decade.

And if the economy takes off well in the post-recession period, the growth figure could jump to 45 per cent, according to forecasts issued this week by the Advertising Association.

"Ad expenditure has recovered from all previous post-war recessions and we see no reason why the outcome of this one should be any different," an AA report said.

Even the AA's worst-case scenario suggests adspend will grow from £10.7 billion to £12.7 billion between now and 2012. The best case has the figure jumping from £11 billion this year to £15.9 billion over the coming decade.

The research, carried out by the World Advertising Research Center, is based on feedback from media owners and official long-term economic forecasts.

The AA acknowledges that forecasting long-term adspend trends is difficult, but warns the ad industry against exaggerated pessimism.

"Pundits predict the end of growth in main media advertising with clockwork regularity - usually at the very point when the industry is starting to recover," it said.

Andrew Brown, the AA's director-general, said: "It's very difficult to know when you're at the bottom of a slump without the benefit of hindsight."

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