Advertisers to move spend out of TV

Television could find itself £430 million a year worse off - a figure roughly twice five's ad revenue - by the end of the decade, according to a report from MindShare's Advanced Techniques Group and Nielsen Media Research.

The two companies have collaborated on a quarterly report, the Through The Line Index (TTL). The report monitors the state of the market and individual sectors. It suggests that advertisers will continue moving their advertising budgets away from TV.

The inaugural report suggests that the decline in television adspend has been caused by structural, as well as recessionary, influences since the dotcom bubble burst.

Between 1999 and 2002, TV saw the smallest growth rate at just 0.4 per cent. This compared with a 2.4 per cent increase for outdoor and 6.3 per cent increase for direct mail.

TTL claims that the technology boom masked the fact that traditionally big TV spending sectors have cut their TV spend. Audience fragmentation, clutter and TV viewing becoming a passive activity are blamed for this decline.

Conversely, outdoor's share is increasing. Among the advertisers increasing outdoor budgets are Nestle and Mars. Direct mail has also seen its slice of promotional budgets increase. The report suggests that, while direct mail provides an attractive return on investment for advertisers during recessions, the medium is showing signs of consistent growth that are not related to the media recession.

Improved techniques in customer relationship marketing and database management have allowed for the better targeting of direct mail and, the report says, with consumers being bombarded with increasing numbers of commercial messages, personalisation has become more important.

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