'Economic uncertainty' forces GroupM to lower 2012 global adspend forecast

GroupM has revised its forecast for this year's growth in global adspend down from 6.3% to 5.1% after the economic outlook became more uncertain, and has raised its digital spend forecast.

Global adspend: GroupM trims earlier forecast from 6.3% to 5.1%
Global adspend: GroupM trims earlier forecast from 6.3% to 5.1%

The WPP media outfit expects marketers to spend $506.3bn (£323bn) on media this year, up from $482bn (£307bn) in 2011.

In its 70-country forecast, it also predicts that global adspend in 2013 will increase 5.3% compared to 2012, representing $533.2bn (£342bn).

US growth for 2012 has been revised down from 4% to 3.6%, and chief investment officer Rino Scanzoni said: "We attribute the decline in US ad spending to a number of factors, including a loss of economic momentum, the global deterioration from all continents, but particularly the Eurozone, and political and fiscal uncertainty at home for the election and beyond."

Ad investment in the Eurozone periphery (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain) fell 6% in 2011 and is expected to fall a further 8.8% in 2012, before levelling out in 2013.

GroupM futures director Adam Smith indicated this prediction "assumes an orderly normalization of the Eurozone".

Digital media growth has been revised up from 16% to 18%, representing a $99bn (£63bn) sum and a fifth of all 2012 spend.

In 2013, digital is forecast to grow 22%, and Smith said: "Internet advertising is growing in every country, so powerful is its structural and evolutionary development."

Smith said TV adspend may have peaked in 2011 at a 43% share, because "the continued development of internet advertising, notably video, will now possibly nip at TV's nominal share, though some internet video investment will simply return to different pockets of the same TV vendors".   

Print newspapers' share of advertising, meanwhile, hit a new low of 17% in 2011, and is expected to drop another percentage point in 2012 and 2013.

Earlier this month GroupM forecast 3.4% growth for UK adspend in 2012

2011 2012f 2013f
NORTH AMERICA 159,738 165,487 170,680
yoy % 3.1 3.6 3.1
LATIN AMERICA 28,366 31,661 35,264
yoy % 13.2 11.6 11.4
WESTERN EUROPE 102,726 101,978 103,577
yoy % 0.9 -0.7 1.6
CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE 18,071 19,562 21,159
yoy % 12.5 8.3 8.2
ASIA-PACIFIC (all) 155,818 169,085 182,338
yoy % 7.7 8.5 7.8
NORTH ASIA 70,274 78,822 87,071
yoy % 15.2 12.2 10.5
ASEAN 13,070 14,457 16,089
yoy % 12.7 10.6 11.3
MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA 17,149 18,514 20,227
yoy % 5.8 8.0 9.3
WORLD 481,869 506,287 533,245
yoy % 5.0 5.1 5.3

f = forecast

spend figures in US dollars


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