As the door closes for the advertising industry, with the
Government pressing ahead with a ban on tobacco promotion (Campaign,
last week), another door will open - for some agencies, at least.
The anti-smoking strategy recently unveiled by Frank Dobson, the Health
Secretary, included a pledge to spend #50 million over three years on an
unprecedented campaign to persuade people not to smoke, including the #3
million a year budget currently with the Health Education Authority.
The blitz, which will start next autumn, will be so intense that a few
agencies are likely to win a slice of the action. It will also provide
some compensation for the outdoor industry which, according to the
Advertising Association, will be hardest hit by the timetable for
implementing the European Union’s directive ending tobacco
promotion.
The EU agreed that posters would be banned by July 2001, but the British
Government intends to implement the ruling a year earlier. Newspaper and
magazine ads, due to disappear throughout Europe, should also end here
by July 2000 thanks to a second sting in the tail of Dobson’s white
paper.
The fast-tracking of the ban was seen at Westminster as a concession to
the anti-smoking lobby, aimed at distracting attention from the
Government’s refusal to outlaw smoking in pubs and restaurants. ’The
only real surprise in the white paper was the timetable,’ Andrew Brown,
the director-general of the AA, says. ’The impact on some parts of the
industry will be greater, especially posters. You can’t take #60 million
out of the market without hurting people.’
Brown believes there are bound to be job losses in agencies dependent on
tobacco business, but hopes they would be ’modest in the overall scheme
of things’. A study by Pieda Consulting, commissioned by the Tobacco
Manufacturers’ Association, suggests that the ban would cost 1,500 jobs
in advertising and sales promotion (Campaign, 4 December).
But the Government is sceptical: a report published alongside the white
paper said the impact on the ad industry will be difficult to gauge.
Agencies have had time to find other clients, it said, adding hopefully
that ’the creative success of tobacco advertising campaigns will help
those responsible to remain competitive’. It admitted that reduced
demand could lead to a fall in the price of advertising but said this
could help other companies who wish to advertise.
Although the Government has promised to consult the tobacco and
advertising sectors before pushing the ban through Parliament, the AA
sees little hope that ministers will change their minds over the
timetable. The only ray of hope lies in two legal challenges: one in the
British courts by the tobacco companies, the other in the European Court
of Justice, where Germany is questioning the legal validity of the
directive.
Some agencies who lose above-the-line work as the ban takes effect may
be asked to channel their creative ingenuity into finding other ways to
recruit smokers.
Direct mail and ’brand stretching’ will be prohibited, but ministers are
bracing themselves for a ’cat and mouse’ game as tobacco companies seek
ways around the ban.
The bad news for agencies hit by the ban is that they are unlikely to
get the chance to switch from poacher to gamekeeper and land a share of
the Government’s anti-smoking drive. ’I don’t think M&C Saatchi (which
holds the Gallaher account) will be top of the shortlist,’ one industry
source says. A Government insider agrees, saying: ’Agencies that have
profited from tobacco are not going to be in on the act.’
No decisions have yet been taken on how the #50 million budget will be
carved up. Romola Christopherson, director of press and publicity at the
Department of Health, says: ’A large chunk will be spent on advertising
but that will only be one part of the mix.’
She added that there will be extensive research and media planning to
ensure the campaign reaches its target audience, and there will also be
a role for direct marketing, public relations and sponsorship.
Young people will be targeted through teenage magazines, adult smokers
in lower income groups will be told they will be better off if they quit
and women planning to have children will be warned that smoking can harm
their baby.
Ministers have invested so much political capital in the campaign that
they are unlikely to hand it over to the self-standing Health Education
Authority, which currently retains Abbott Mead Vickers BBDO on it #2.5
million anti-smoking account, while the Department of Health has put
#500,000 into a push aimed at teenagers from the through-the-line
agency, Brewer Blackler.
Although the Department of Health will be in the driving seat, the HEA
could win contracts for part of the work and AMV, whose creative work is
admired by the Government, is likely to win a place on the agency
shortlist.
The agencies involved will certainly have to earn their money. Their
work will be measured against targets to reduce the number of smokers
which have been missed repeatedly in the past. But at least they will
get the tools to do the job. ’For years, tobacco companies have spent
millions on advertising,’ Dobson says. ’Now we are prepared to do the
same.’
Andrew Grice is the political editor of the Independent.
