The decline in the global advertising market is to slow to 1.3 per
cent next year, according to the latest predictions from Zenith
A recovery in travel, leisure and sport advertising linked to World Cup
soccer and the Winter Olympics 2002, combined with a steady FMCG spend,
will help to reverse the decline. But new restrictions on tobacco and
alcohol advertising in several developing markets and the continued weak
showing in dotcoms, telecoms and financial services are expected to drag
any recovery back.
Zenith is predicting a small growth of 2.3 per cent in UK TV ad
If accurate, this will mean zero growth in real cash terms. UK growth
will come from a number of positive factors including the relatively
strong UK economy, an expected increase of spending by third-generation
telecommunication companies and the World Cup Finals in Japan and
TV prices for 2002 should also remain at 1998 levels, according to
Zenith. Net ad revenue for UK TV in 2002 is predicted to reach £3.01 billion, compared with £2.94 billion for 2001, down from
£3.33 billion in 2000.
Zenith estimates a TV revenue decline of 15.4 per cent at ITV, 6.8 per
cent at Channel 4, 10.3 per cent at Channel 5 and 13.4 per cent at
After a relatively good 2001 for magazines, Zenith said that forward
bookings are beginning to suffer and revenues are anticipated to level
off in 2002.
Display and classified ad growth for national newspapers, which fell
from the end of March 2001 after last year's boom categories - finance,
dotcom and IT -slumped, is not expected to recover. The report said: "We
expect no miracles in 2002."
Simon Marquis, the chief executive of Zenith UK, said: "Our numbers
suggest that most media revenues will hold reasonably steady so there is
reason for cautious optimism. However, there is no evidence of a
dramatic upturn, it's rather that we expect to see fewer plunges."